|  | Copyright © MarketWatch, Inc. All right... Hear about what's driving the stock market from those in the know. MarketWatch Radio talks about the big stock movers, economic data and investment trends with Wall Street's top analysts, strategists... | |
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Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller and Washington, tells Andrew O'Day reports on retail sales and PPI prove there will be more economic pain to come. But Warren Buffett is buying bargains, and the bear is almost back in the cave.  |
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Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham financial Services, tells Andrew O'Day the administration's direct investment in nine large U.S. banks is the correct move, but the amount is too small to work.  |
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Joe Battipaglia, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus, tells Andrew O'Day action on Wall Street today is more than a dead cat bounce. Investors are starting to bet that government purchases of bank stock could stabilize the system in 6 to 8 weeks.  |
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With high hopes of "another coordinated effort by the G7 over this coming weekend to ensure the bank deposits from one bank to another bank," Marc Pado, the US Market Strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald is looking for a market recovery next week. He tells Steve Potisk if those deposits are guaranteed good, "you burst the bubble of pressure that's building," and a bounce back of "a thousand points or more" wouldn't be out of the question. Pado says "in terms of valuations, this is way below the levels that we have seen in '87 and in '74, at the very bottoms of the worst bear markets that we've seen."  |
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All of the volatility seen on Wall Street yesterday and today may actually suggest something positive since "we're starting to see bargain hunters coming into the market, so we're getting some buying in different industries, different stocks." So says Paul Nolte, the director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. He tells Steve Potisk everything the Fed and Treasury Department are doing to unfreeze credit markets is "really the grease that's going to make the economy grow." But he says "it may be early, mid next year before that happens." Nolte adds that as for stocks, "the market could still go down another ten percent or so from here just purely on momentum." However, "over the next three to five years the markets could return upper single digits, maybe even lower double digits."  |
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While today's coordinated interest rate cut "sends a very strong global message that we've got central banks that are aware of the issues," Art Hogan, the chief market strategist at Jeffries and Company says the problem "is it's like celebrating when the ambulance gets to your house on time. You're very excited that it's there on time, but unfortunately you're reminded that you need the ambulance." Hogan tells Steve Potisk that while the rate cut was a good move, " none of the monetary policy tools that we pulled out of the bag this week are going to work overnight." But Hogan says there are "glimmers of hope, like Warren Buffet putting "30 billion dollars to work in the last two weeks," well as "Wells Fargo stepping in front of Citibank to bid on assets of Wachovia," and ridiculously cheap valuations.  |
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When it comes to buying up commercial paper, "the steps that the Fed is talking today are certainly significant in real terms and maybe even more importantly right now, psychological terms." So says Gene Peroni, senior vice president at Advisors Asset Management. He tells Steve Potisk, "the most important thing facing the market is this credit crunch," and so interest rate cuts may not "be the real answer. "Although Peroni adds that "if they do cut rates, "that would be a psychological plus." And while, Peroni thinks the tough market conditions will continue for "awhile," once the market "begins to show some semblance of stability, you're going to draw in buyers just on that alone."  |
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"Wall Street is just one player in a global market these days, and this is the first financial crisis" where we've had to face that "head on." So says Elizabeth Miller, the president at Summit Place Financial Advisors. She tells Steve Potisk passing the financial rescue bill hasn't been enough to stabilize stock markets. She says "it's a start" but "fundamentally investors and particularly corporate America that's involved in the market need to see the credit markets moving." Miller adds that "until enough trust is restored that institutions will lend, we will be in this downward spiral."  |
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It is "important" for Wall Street to start seeing "short term credit market conditions improve." So says Hugh Johnson, the chairman at Johnson Illington Advisors. He tells Steve Potisk it is essential that credit rates "come down to levels that are basically affordable by most businesses." Johnson says now "the focus is starting to shift from Congress and bailouts to the economic numbers." But he says "it all goes together" as investors see credit market conditions "affecting the economy." On the Well Fargo-Citigroup battle over Wachovia, Johnson says it's "particularly encouraging that Wells Fargo is willing to step up to the plate and buy Wachovia for 15.1 billion."  |
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Wall Street remains concerned about the outlook for the financial rescue bill since "the epicenter of problems is the House, that's where they failed to deliver last time." So says Phil Dow, the director of equity strategy at RBC Wealth Management. He tells Steve Potisk that if it passes, we "could see a pretty big rally develop...with an immediate nice boost in market averages." But Dow says stocks could still head lower, as people recognize, "this may mean a heightened chance for recession, probably earnings estimates need to come down and a period of kind of market uncertainty to follow." But having said that, Dow believes the market will be "significantly higher" in a year's time.  |
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